Demographics Now and Then

Worth keeping South Korean fertility rebound in context. If trajectory maintains & births increase 15% in 2026 annual births will be ~293,000. As you can see from the South Korean population pyramid, comeback cohort of 1991-1995 are all now in their early 30s.…

Extremely rapid demographic change in Latam means older voters & their interests will be much more dominant in elections to come (as they have been in Europe & North America for decades). Their issues will likely be maintaining/solidifying pensions & benefits.…

In the 1990s & even 2000s far more abortions than births was the case in most European post Soviet countries (like Russia,Ukraine, & Belarus). But in those countries this reversed dramatically in late 2000s & 2010s to today. Azerbaijan is a rare drastic aborti…

While mainly a discussion point in more niche demographic communities at present, African fertility collapse to be visable to all by the 2030s. In West, East, & Central Africa TFR likely to fall below 3.5 by mid 2030s. Will be below replacement in all of North…

Central Asia has proved itself to be perhaps the most demographically resilient region on earth. Despite rapid growth in per capita income & access to smartphones they (besides perhaps Turkmenistan) have stayed above replacement far longer than almost all simi…

South Korea managed to partially rebound TFR to take advantage of their last chance cohort (born from 1991 to 1996). They are giving birth now & TFR is rising sharply from 0.72 to~1.0 this year. After this cohort even if TFR continues⬆️to 1.3,births may fall a…

Belarus is facing a severe demographic crisis. Driven by ultralow fertility (around 1.05) & historic emigration waves, its population is projected to plummet to just 7.45M by 2050. By then, the median age will climb to 49.1 years, with 27.5% of the population…

There has been a 94% decrease in border encounters between undocumented attempted migrants & US Customs & Border Protection from July 2025-2026 compared to the same period in 2024. The change is massive, just 137,000 encounters compared to 2.4M in 2024. Net in…